LSU vs. Alabama score prediction by college football computer model

A pair of historic division rivals square off this weekend in a game that will help decide the leader in the SEC West division title race as No. 8 Alabama welcomes No. 14 LSU in college football's Week 10 action on Saturday.

• LSU upset Bama by 1-point last year en route to the SEC West crown
• Now the Tigers are at two losses through eight games
• LSU boasts the nation's No. 1 offense but the 75th ranked scoring defense
• Still questions around Alabama's offensive line play
• But dynamic quarterback play has helped keep Tide perfect in SEC play
• What can we make of the game? Let's check in with SP+ prediction model

LSU vs. Alabama predictions

The simulations favor the Crimson Tide to hold off LSU, but in a close game.

SP+ forecasts that Alabama will defeat the Tigers by a projected score of 32 to 26 with an estimated scoring margin of 5.8 points in the game.

The model gives Alabama a 63 percent chance to win the game outright, while LSU has the 37 percent shot to pull off the upset.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 236-236-12 (50.0%) in straight-up game predictions and 223-252-9 (47.0%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

Alabama is a 2.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 60.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -150 and for LSU at +120.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Alabama -2.5
• Tide on the ML at -150
• Bet under 60.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also favor Alabama to beat LSU in a close game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects Alabama will win the game in 62.4 percent of its simulations, while LSU comes out the winner in the remaining 37.6 percent of sims.

By taking the difference between each team's projected scoring margin per game, the computer predicts that Alabama will defeat LSU by 2.2 points, or rounding down, by 2 points, not enough to cover the line.

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LSU at Alabama game time

When: Sat., Nov. 4
Time: 6:45 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)